NATO
SCIENCE PROGRAMME
Cooperative Science & Technology Sub-Programme
COLLABORATIVE LINKAGE GRANT N° CLG 977529
NATO Scientific Affairs Division, Bd. Leopold III, B-1110 Brussels,
Belgium – fax +32 2 707 4232
SCIENTIFIC
REPORT
Sent January 2003 - Updated July 2005 |
1.
PROJECT TITLE |
STRESS TRANSFER AND FAULT SEISMIC POTENTIAL, SOUTHERN
BAIKAL RIFT, SIBERIA
|
2.
PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATORS |
(i)
Project Coordinator from a NATO country: |
(ii)
Project Coordinator from a Partner |
(iii)
Other Principal Investigators |
Surname/First Names(s)/Title:
DEVERCHERE Jacques
Institute and Address:
Université de Bretagne Occidentale, IUEM
CNRS-UMR6538 « Domaines Océaniques »
Place N. Copernic, 29280 Plouzané, France |
Surname/First Name(s)/Title :
SAN’KOV Vladimir
Institute and Address:
Institute of the Earth's Crust, Russian Academy of Sciences
Siberian Branch, Lermontov st., 128 - 664033 IRKUTSK, RUSSIA |
Surname
First Name(s) Title:
RITZ Jean-François
Institute and Address
UMR 5573
Université Montpellier II
Place Eugène Bataillon
34095 Montpellier Cedex 05, France |
3.
PROJECT KEYWORDS (maximum 15) |
Seismic
hazard assessment, paleoseismology, stress triggering, fault behavior,
broadband seismology, aftershock sequence, static stress changes,
Coulomb failure |
4.
Abstract of the work accomplished and the results obtained
|
The
aim of this project was to promote within two years an efficient
transfer of recent analytical methods towards Russian teams, all
related to strain and stress near large active faults, and apply
this approach to the Baikal rift, a region characterized by large
faults (~100-150 km) and located just north of Mongolia, place of
active compressional tectonics and very large recent earthquakes. |
1.
Paleoseismology (Russia: S. Arjannikov; France: J-F. Ritz)
The goal of our study was twofold: To determine what is the kinematics
of the active faults in the Tunka-Sayan area and to quantify the
slip rates and the mean return period of earthquakes along the
faults. Our approach has been the tectonic geomorphology and the
paleoseismology (trenching). The first field studies in 1999 and
2000 had led to select two sites along which we had observed evidences
of recent tectonic inversion (i.e. from transtension to transpression):
The E-W Mondy valley which connects the Tunka basin to the Hovsgol
rift system (Larroque et al., 2001) and the North Tunka fault
itself, at one site called Bielly Kamen.
Several questions remained to better characterize the active tectonics
at these sites: What was the precise geometry (length, segmentation,
kinematics) of the Mondy fault zone including the Ikhe-Ukghun
secondary fault located just to the North; and how many events
were responsible of the Bielly Kanen fault scarp along the North
Tunka fault ?
These questions have been the subject of Sergey Arjannikov’s
work: during summer 2001 during a field study in collaboration
with his colleagues V. Sankov and A. Arjannikova (also from the
Institute of Earth’s Crust in Irkutsk) and this Autumn 2003
in Montpellier where S. Arjannikov stayed for 4 weeks.
The field data collected last summer were discussed and interpreted
in Montpellier. They show that the Mondy fault is a major left
strike-slip fault with a small reverse component, extending from
the eastern edge of the Tunka basin to the Hövsgöl and
dipping steeply to the South rift (Publication 3). In Bielly Kamen
the re-occupation of the trench shows that the fault scarp correspond
to only one big event (with therefore a preliminary estimated
magnitude M ~ 8). The complementary sampling will allow to bracket
this major event which age is estimated at 6.7 ka after our preliminary
radiocarbon dates.
His stay in Montpellier allowed S. Arjannikov to update his knowledge
in paleoseismology and seismotectonics through fruitful discussions
and numerous visits to our Department library. We also took the
opportunity of his visit to analyse one of the major question
which remains unsolved in the Northwestern Sayan region: When
did the Tertiary compression started up there ? This area, where
S. Arjannikov collected already quite a few field data, that we
started to synthesize in Montpellier, should be the subject of
a future field investigation.
2.
GPS (continuous) geodesy (Russia: A. Lukhnev; France: E. Calais)
Our objective was to provide technology and knowledge-how transfer
to the Institute of the Earth’s Crust (IEC) so that they
could become a GPS data processing center for continuously operating
GPS stations in Asia for crustal deformation studies. We hosted
Andrei Lukhnev on January 2002 and provided training in the use
of the GAMIT-GLOBK GPS analysis software for the processing of
continuous GPS networks. In summer 2002, we provided the IEC with
a suite of Unix scripts to automate the processing of continuous
networks. Since the IEC was already running the GAMIT-GLOBK software
for processing campaign GPS measurements, the upgrade to processing
data from permanent stations was rather straightforward. We also
provided information and references on the computation of position
time series for continuous GPS stations and their analysis in
terms of data noise and geophysical signals. We provided software
and training for the interpretation GPS velocities in terms of
strain rates. We have maintained continuous contact by email since
the beginning of the partnership, with technical and scientific
exchanges. We have followed the progress made by A. Lukhnev in
the use of these various piece of software and are confident that
he is now proficient in their use.
Results of permanent GPS data are used in Publications 1 and 4.
They indicate that crustal motions in Mongolia Baikal are significantly
faster than the predictions of most deformation models of Asia.
They also provide a key control on modelling post-seismic deformation
caused by visco-elastic relaxation in the lower crust following
the Bolnay-Tsetserleg earthquake sequence (Mw=8.4 and Mw=7.9,
July 1905) as shown in Publication 1. Furthermore, we have quantified
east- to south-eastward motion and left-lateral shear for central
and eastern Mongolia which is accommodated by left-lateral slip
on the E-W trending Tunka, Bolnay, and Gobi Altay faults (2 ?
1.2 mm/yr, 2.6 ? 1.0 mm/yr, and 1.2 mm/yr, respectively) and by
about 4 mm/yr of extension across the Baikal rift zone (Publication
4). These values are key parameters for seismic risk assessments
on these major faults.
|
3.
Stress transfer modelling (Russia: V. San’kov; France:
J. Déverchère)
The work shared between people of the group: (1) Using the Bolnay
sequence, we have shown that stress transfer modeling in the
Baikal region has to include postseismic relaxation in the upper
mantle and lower crust (Publication 1). (2) We have revised
the source and rupture parameters of the large events (M>7)
which have shaked Siberia and Mongolia since the XVIII century
and in historical times. (3) Foreshocks and aftershocks of the
Bolnay-Tsetserleg (1905), Muya (1957), Mogod (1967), and Busingol
(1991) have revealed very contrasted seismic energy release
patterns: we have distinguished 3 different behaviors, tentatively
attributed to co- and post-seismic stress effect disturbances
from large earthquakes at large distances, disturbances arising
from post-seismic relaxation effects after the 1905 Bolnay and
the 1862 Proval Bay ruptures, and long-term, interseismic stress
loading on other faults. From this revision, it appears that
the 1862, 1950 and 1957 sources can be modeled in the code procedure
for modelling Coulomb stress changes by Fred Pollitz (USGS,
California): a paper to be submitted to J. Geophys. Res. is
on the way, and further results will be obtained during 2003
in the course of M. Vergnolle’s PhD thesis. Nevertheless,
it is difficult up to now to obtain a dynamic stress state models
on 2 important active faults (Sayan and Barguzin) because of
the lack of knowledge on pre-existing ruptures. (4) The source
of the Ms 7.0, April 4, 1950 Mondy earthquake is now clarified
(Publication 2): we attribute its missing reverse component
to a nearby reverse fault, therefore demonstrating a clear strain
partitioning in this region, which has important consequences
on our understanding of fault interaction in this area, as also
documented in southern Mongolia on the Gurvan Bulag fault system
(Prentice et al., 2002; Carretier et al., 2002).
4.
Body-waveform inversion of large earthquakes (Russia: N. Radziminovitch;
France: A. Deschamps)
The installation of two important softwares (SAC2000 and GMT)
for the display, processing and representation of seismic signals
and for the use of mapping tools was done on Sun computers in
IEC Lab. We have selected the earthquake data of the February
25, 1999 Mw=6.1 event, and analyze the results on aftershock
locations for this event. For the South Lake event, it appeared
that the CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor) solution published by
Harvard Center is robust enough: we have therefore focused our
work on the precise relocation and stress tensor determination
of the aftershocks and foreshocks of the sequence of the South
Baikal Lake which has been fully re-processed and interpretated.
A very clear and stable extensional stress field have been described
before, during and after the main shock. We have only noticed
a slightly different stress regime after the main shock. The
strike, dip and position of the main fault have been identified
thanks to consistent informations gathered from focal mechanisms
and hypocenter distribution. A very new point arising from this
study is that the February 25, 1999 earthquake occurred on an
active fault system which is clearly not connected to the border
faults of the Baikal Lake. Instead, it is better explained by
faults which are born from internal evolution of the southern
rift. We propose therefore that the southern Lake Baikal has
opened as a horsetail structure and is kinematically controlled
by the Sayan fault. This study is presented in a paper published
in 2005 to Geophysical Journal International (Publication
5). It provides a completely new picture on the seismic risk
arising from the Southern Lake, which is at about 70 km from
the major town of this region: Irkutsk.
|
References
called in the text:
Carretier S., J-F Ritz, J. Jackson, and A. Baysagalan,
Morphological dating of cumulative reverse fault scarp, examples
from the Gurvan bulag fault system, Mongolia, Geophys. J. Int.,
148, 256-277, 2002.
Déverchère J., Petit C., Gileva N., Radziminovitch
N., Melnikova V., and San'kov V. Depth distribution of
earthquakes in the Baikal rift system and its implications for
the rheology of the lithosphere, Geophys. J. Int., 146, 714-730,
2001.
Larroque C., J-F. Ritz, J-F. Stephan, V. Sankov, A. Arjannikova,
E. Calais, J. Déverchère, and L. Loncke,
Interaction compression-extension à la limite Mongolie-Sibérie
: analyse préliminaire des déformations récentes
et actuelles dans le bassin de Tunka. C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris,
332, 177-184, 2001.
Prentice, C. S., K. J. Kendrick, K. Berryman, A. Bayasgalan,
J. F. Ritz, and J. Q. Spencer, Prehistoric ruptures of
the Gurvan Bulag fault, Gobi Altay, Mongolia, J. Geophys. Res.,
107(B12), 2321, doi:10.1029/2001JB000803, 2002. |
Remarks,
if any:
We
have greatly benefited from the substantial support provided
by NATO in the course of this grant. All participants acknowledge
this income and emphasize the importance of maintaining
exchanges between partners through stays in Labs of both
countries and on the field. This has allowed an efficient
transfer of methodology in the analysis of geophysical and
geological data, a good integration of up-to-date bibliography,
an important exchange of field experience, and fruitful
scientific discussions. |
|
5.
Publications resulting from the project |
Nº |
Publications |
1 |
Calais,
E., M. Vergnolle, J. Déverchère, V. Sankov, A. Lukhnev,
and S. Amarjargal,
Are post-seismic effects of the M=8.4 Bolnay earthquake (July 12,
1905) still influencing GPS velocities in the Mongolia-Baikal area?,
Geophys. J. Int., 149, 157-168, 2002. |
2 |
Delouis
B., J. Déverchère, V. Melnikova, N. Radziminovitch,
L. Loncke, C. Larroque, J. Ritz, and V. San’kov,
A reappraisal of the 1950 (Mw 6.9) Mondy earthquake, Siberia,
and its relationship to the strain pattern at the south-western
end of the Baikal rift zone, Terra Nova, 14(6),
491-500, 2002. |
3 |
Arjannikova
A., C. Larroque, J.F. Ritz, J. Déverchère, J-F. Stéphan,
S. Arjannikov and V. San’kov,
Geometry and kinematics of recent deformation in the Mondy-Tunka
area (south-westernmost Baikal rift zone, Mongolia-Siberia), Terra
Nova, 16, 265-272, doi:10.1111/j.1365-3121.2004.00565.x,
2004. |
4 |
Calais
E., M. Vergnolle, V. San’kov, A. Lukhnev, A. Miroshnitchenko,
S. Amarjargal, and J. Déverchère,
GPS measurements of crustal deformation in the Baikal-Mongolia
area, 1994-2002, J. Geophys. Res., 108(B10), 2501,
doi:10.1029/2002JB002373, 2003. |
5 |
Radziminovitch
N., J. Déverchère, V. Melnikova, V. San’kov,
and N. Gileva,
The 1999 Mw 6.0 earthquake sequence in the Southern Baikal rift,
Asia, and its seismotectonic implications, Geophys. J. Int.,
161, 387–400, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02604.x, 2005. |
6 |
San'kov
V. A. Chipizubov, A. Lukhnev, O. Smekalin, A. Miroshnitchenko, E.
Clais, and J. Déverchère,
Assessment of a large earthquake risk in the zone of Main Sayan
Fault using GPS geodesy and paleoseismology, Russian Geology
and Geophysics, 45(11), 1369-1376, UDC 551.242.11(571.53/55),
2004. |
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