UMR 6538
PROGRAMME DE RECHERCHE AVEC L'OTAN 2001-2002
NATO SCIENCE PROGRAMME
Cooperative Science & Technology Sub-Programme
COLLABORATIVE LINKAGE GRANT N° CLG 977529
NATO Scientific Affairs Division, Bd. Leopold III, B-1110 Brussels, Belgium – fax +32 2 707 4232
SCIENTIFIC REPORT
Sent January 2003 - Updated July 2005
1. PROJECT TITLE
STRESS TRANSFER AND FAULT SEISMIC POTENTIAL, SOUTHERN BAIKAL RIFT, SIBERIA
2. PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATORS
(i) Project Coordinator from a NATO country:
(ii) Project Coordinator from a Partner
(iii) Other Principal Investigators
Surname/First Names(s)/Title:
DEVERCHERE Jacques
Institute and Address:
Université de Bretagne Occidentale, IUEM
CNRS-UMR6538 « Domaines Océaniques »
Place N. Copernic, 29280 Plouzané, France
Surname/First Name(s)/Title :
SAN’KOV Vladimir
Institute and Address:
Institute of the Earth's Crust, Russian Academy of Sciences
Siberian Branch, Lermontov st., 128 - 664033 IRKUTSK, RUSSIA
Surname First Name(s) Title:
RITZ Jean-François
Institute and Address
UMR 5573
Université Montpellier II
Place Eugène Bataillon
34095 Montpellier Cedex 05, France
3. PROJECT KEYWORDS (maximum 15)
Seismic hazard assessment, paleoseismology, stress triggering, fault behavior, broadband seismology, aftershock sequence, static stress changes, Coulomb failure
4. Abstract of the work accomplished and the results obtained
The aim of this project was to promote within two years an efficient transfer of recent analytical methods towards Russian teams, all related to strain and stress near large active faults, and apply this approach to the Baikal rift, a region characterized by large faults (~100-150 km) and located just north of Mongolia, place of active compressional tectonics and very large recent earthquakes.

1. Paleoseismology (Russia: S. Arjannikov; France: J-F. Ritz)
The goal of our study was twofold: To determine what is the kinematics of the active faults in the Tunka-Sayan area and to quantify the slip rates and the mean return period of earthquakes along the faults. Our approach has been the tectonic geomorphology and the paleoseismology (trenching). The first field studies in 1999 and 2000 had led to select two sites along which we had observed evidences of recent tectonic inversion (i.e. from transtension to transpression): The E-W Mondy valley which connects the Tunka basin to the Hovsgol rift system (Larroque et al., 2001) and the North Tunka fault itself, at one site called Bielly Kamen.
Several questions remained to better characterize the active tectonics at these sites: What was the precise geometry (length, segmentation, kinematics) of the Mondy fault zone including the Ikhe-Ukghun secondary fault located just to the North; and how many events were responsible of the Bielly Kanen fault scarp along the North Tunka fault ?
These questions have been the subject of Sergey Arjannikov’s work: during summer 2001 during a field study in collaboration with his colleagues V. Sankov and A. Arjannikova (also from the Institute of Earth’s Crust in Irkutsk) and this Autumn 2003 in Montpellier where S. Arjannikov stayed for 4 weeks.
The field data collected last summer were discussed and interpreted in Montpellier. They show that the Mondy fault is a major left strike-slip fault with a small reverse component, extending from the eastern edge of the Tunka basin to the Hövsgöl and dipping steeply to the South rift (Publication 3). In Bielly Kamen the re-occupation of the trench shows that the fault scarp correspond to only one big event (with therefore a preliminary estimated magnitude M ~ 8). The complementary sampling will allow to bracket this major event which age is estimated at 6.7 ka after our preliminary radiocarbon dates.
His stay in Montpellier allowed S. Arjannikov to update his knowledge in paleoseismology and seismotectonics through fruitful discussions and numerous visits to our Department library. We also took the opportunity of his visit to analyse one of the major question which remains unsolved in the Northwestern Sayan region: When did the Tertiary compression started up there ? This area, where S. Arjannikov collected already quite a few field data, that we started to synthesize in Montpellier, should be the subject of a future field investigation.

2. GPS (continuous) geodesy (Russia: A. Lukhnev; France: E. Calais)
Our objective was to provide technology and knowledge-how transfer to the Institute of the Earth’s Crust (IEC) so that they could become a GPS data processing center for continuously operating GPS stations in Asia for crustal deformation studies. We hosted Andrei Lukhnev on January 2002 and provided training in the use of the GAMIT-GLOBK GPS analysis software for the processing of continuous GPS networks. In summer 2002, we provided the IEC with a suite of Unix scripts to automate the processing of continuous networks. Since the IEC was already running the GAMIT-GLOBK software for processing campaign GPS measurements, the upgrade to processing data from permanent stations was rather straightforward. We also provided information and references on the computation of position time series for continuous GPS stations and their analysis in terms of data noise and geophysical signals. We provided software and training for the interpretation GPS velocities in terms of strain rates. We have maintained continuous contact by email since the beginning of the partnership, with technical and scientific exchanges. We have followed the progress made by A. Lukhnev in the use of these various piece of software and are confident that he is now proficient in their use.
Results of permanent GPS data are used in Publications 1 and 4. They indicate that crustal motions in Mongolia Baikal are significantly faster than the predictions of most deformation models of Asia. They also provide a key control on modelling post-seismic deformation caused by visco-elastic relaxation in the lower crust following the Bolnay-Tsetserleg earthquake sequence (Mw=8.4 and Mw=7.9, July 1905) as shown in Publication 1. Furthermore, we have quantified east- to south-eastward motion and left-lateral shear for central and eastern Mongolia which is accommodated by left-lateral slip on the E-W trending Tunka, Bolnay, and Gobi Altay faults (2 ? 1.2 mm/yr, 2.6 ? 1.0 mm/yr, and 1.2 mm/yr, respectively) and by about 4 mm/yr of extension across the Baikal rift zone (Publication 4). These values are key parameters for seismic risk assessments on these major faults.

3. Stress transfer modelling (Russia: V. San’kov; France: J. Déverchère)
The work shared between people of the group: (1) Using the Bolnay sequence, we have shown that stress transfer modeling in the Baikal region has to include postseismic relaxation in the upper mantle and lower crust (Publication 1). (2) We have revised the source and rupture parameters of the large events (M>7) which have shaked Siberia and Mongolia since the XVIII century and in historical times. (3) Foreshocks and aftershocks of the Bolnay-Tsetserleg (1905), Muya (1957), Mogod (1967), and Busingol (1991) have revealed very contrasted seismic energy release patterns: we have distinguished 3 different behaviors, tentatively attributed to co- and post-seismic stress effect disturbances from large earthquakes at large distances, disturbances arising from post-seismic relaxation effects after the 1905 Bolnay and the 1862 Proval Bay ruptures, and long-term, interseismic stress loading on other faults. From this revision, it appears that the 1862, 1950 and 1957 sources can be modeled in the code procedure for modelling Coulomb stress changes by Fred Pollitz (USGS, California): a paper to be submitted to J. Geophys. Res. is on the way, and further results will be obtained during 2003 in the course of M. Vergnolle’s PhD thesis. Nevertheless, it is difficult up to now to obtain a dynamic stress state models on 2 important active faults (Sayan and Barguzin) because of the lack of knowledge on pre-existing ruptures. (4) The source of the Ms 7.0, April 4, 1950 Mondy earthquake is now clarified (Publication 2): we attribute its missing reverse component to a nearby reverse fault, therefore demonstrating a clear strain partitioning in this region, which has important consequences on our understanding of fault interaction in this area, as also documented in southern Mongolia on the Gurvan Bulag fault system (Prentice et al., 2002; Carretier et al., 2002).

4. Body-waveform inversion of large earthquakes (Russia: N. Radziminovitch; France: A. Deschamps)
The installation of two important softwares (SAC2000 and GMT) for the display, processing and representation of seismic signals and for the use of mapping tools was done on Sun computers in IEC Lab. We have selected the earthquake data of the February 25, 1999 Mw=6.1 event, and analyze the results on aftershock locations for this event. For the South Lake event, it appeared that the CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor) solution published by Harvard Center is robust enough: we have therefore focused our work on the precise relocation and stress tensor determination of the aftershocks and foreshocks of the sequence of the South Baikal Lake which has been fully re-processed and interpretated. A very clear and stable extensional stress field have been described before, during and after the main shock. We have only noticed a slightly different stress regime after the main shock. The strike, dip and position of the main fault have been identified thanks to consistent informations gathered from focal mechanisms and hypocenter distribution. A very new point arising from this study is that the February 25, 1999 earthquake occurred on an active fault system which is clearly not connected to the border faults of the Baikal Lake. Instead, it is better explained by faults which are born from internal evolution of the southern rift. We propose therefore that the southern Lake Baikal has opened as a horsetail structure and is kinematically controlled by the Sayan fault. This study is presented in a paper published in 2005 to Geophysical Journal International (Publication 5). It provides a completely new picture on the seismic risk arising from the Southern Lake, which is at about 70 km from the major town of this region: Irkutsk.

References called in the text:

Carretier S., J-F Ritz, J. Jackson, and A. Baysagalan,
Morphological dating of cumulative reverse fault scarp, examples from the Gurvan bulag fault system, Mongolia, Geophys. J. Int., 148, 256-277, 2002.

Déverchère J., Petit C., Gileva N., Radziminovitch N., Melnikova V., and San'kov V. Depth distribution of earthquakes in the Baikal rift system and its implications for the rheology of the lithosphere, Geophys. J. Int., 146, 714-730, 2001.

Larroque C., J-F. Ritz, J-F. Stephan, V. Sankov, A. Arjannikova, E. Calais, J. Déverchère, and L. Loncke,
Interaction compression-extension à la limite Mongolie-Sibérie : analyse préliminaire des déformations récentes et actuelles dans le bassin de Tunka. C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, 332, 177-184, 2001.

Prentice, C. S., K. J. Kendrick, K. Berryman, A. Bayasgalan, J. F. Ritz, and J. Q. Spencer, Prehistoric ruptures of the Gurvan Bulag fault, Gobi Altay, Mongolia, J. Geophys. Res., 107(B12), 2321, doi:10.1029/2001JB000803, 2002.

Remarks, if any:

We have greatly benefited from the substantial support provided by NATO in the course of this grant. All participants acknowledge this income and emphasize the importance of maintaining exchanges between partners through stays in Labs of both countries and on the field. This has allowed an efficient transfer of methodology in the analysis of geophysical and geological data, a good integration of up-to-date bibliography, an important exchange of field experience, and fruitful scientific discussions.

5. Publications resulting from the project
Publications
1
Calais, E., M. Vergnolle, J. Déverchère, V. Sankov, A. Lukhnev, and S. Amarjargal,
Are post-seismic effects of the M=8.4 Bolnay earthquake (July 12, 1905) still influencing GPS velocities in the Mongolia-Baikal area?, Geophys. J. Int., 149, 157-168, 2002.
2
Delouis B., J. Déverchère, V. Melnikova, N. Radziminovitch, L. Loncke, C. Larroque, J. Ritz, and V. San’kov,
A reappraisal of the 1950 (Mw 6.9) Mondy earthquake, Siberia, and its relationship to the strain pattern at the south-western end of the Baikal rift zone, Terra Nova, 14(6), 491-500, 2002.
3
Arjannikova A., C. Larroque, J.F. Ritz, J. Déverchère, J-F. Stéphan, S. Arjannikov and V. San’kov,
Geometry and kinematics of recent deformation in the Mondy-Tunka area (south-westernmost Baikal rift zone, Mongolia-Siberia), Terra Nova, 16, 265-272, doi:10.1111/j.1365-3121.2004.00565.x, 2004.
4
Calais E., M. Vergnolle, V. San’kov, A. Lukhnev, A. Miroshnitchenko, S. Amarjargal, and J. Déverchère,
GPS measurements of crustal deformation in the Baikal-Mongolia area, 1994-2002, J. Geophys. Res., 108(B10), 2501, doi:10.1029/2002JB002373, 2003.
5
Radziminovitch N., J. Déverchère, V. Melnikova, V. San’kov, and N. Gileva,
The 1999 Mw 6.0 earthquake sequence in the Southern Baikal rift, Asia, and its seismotectonic implications, Geophys. J. Int., 161, 387–400, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02604.x, 2005.
6
San'kov V. A. Chipizubov, A. Lukhnev, O. Smekalin, A. Miroshnitchenko, E. Clais, and J. Déverchère,
Assessment of a large earthquake risk in the zone of Main Sayan Fault using GPS geodesy and paleoseismology, Russian Geology and Geophysics, 45(11), 1369-1376, UDC 551.242.11(571.53/55), 2004.